A great opportunity for Nokia that no one has mentioned…

The news is full of reports on the abysmal second quarter results posted by Nokia today, which saw such a massive drop for the company that it has been surpassed by Apple in smartphone sales for the first time (16.7 million Nokias, compared to 20 million iPhones).

Some are suggesting that it’s a sign the move to Windows Phone 7 was the right one, but most analysis and opinion is that Nokia might not survive long enough at this rate, given that we’re only likely to see one WP7 handset by the end of the year, and although the operating system is a nice one, it might not be nice enough to make any impact into the growth of Android and iOS. For a full and complete analysis of how far Nokia have floated up the creek without any propulsion, Tomi Ahonen is as comprehensive as ever in his figures, predictions, and critical analysis of Microsoft and Nokia CEO Stephen Elop.

But I think I may have spotted a big opportunity for a core of growth for Nokia, and it’s all based around Windows Phone 7 and their relationship with Microsoft

Here’s where Nokia, Microsoft and Windows Phone 7 could nail it:

  • Microsoft posted record quarter profits for Q4 last year, and record annual profits of $69.94 billion.
  • The biggest growth has come from the Entertainment and Devices division, which includes Kinect, and the Xbox, which was picked out as contributing significantly to the record profits.
  • Whether you prefer WP7, Android or iOS, you can certainly see that WP7 is a good enough OS to on a par with the others, but the perception is that the huge app catalogues of Android and iOS and the continued increase in developers devoting time and effort to them make their leads pretty unassailable.

But here’s what I think would give Nokia, Microsoft and WP7 a significant core group of growth from which to build….

  • Xbox is growing and making significant revenue.
  • Kinect is a record-breaking success.
  • Integration with Xbox Live and gaming on mobiles has been mentioned by senior Microsoft staff for years, even before the Xbox 360 launched (One of the chief people involved in the Xbox project, J Allard, talked about it in-depth in an Edge magazine feature back in 2005).
  • The biggest selling entertainment product of last year, which broke records for all videogame sales, was Activion’s Call of Duty: Black Ops, which is currently time-exclusive for the Xbox, meaning all updates etc are released way earlier for the Microsoft Console.

Non-gamers may still be asking why this matters, but consider the fact that there is a huge group of Call of Duty gamers who have bought an Xbox purely to play Call of Duty. And these generally aren’t 15-year-olds – these are mainly late-20s and early-30s men (and some ladies) who also bought an iPhone when they became cool and fashionable because a guy at work showed them Angry Birds.

These are people with limited time, and limited interest in comparing operating systems, or app inventory. There are plenty of other great games on the Xbox, but they’ll possibly buy a football game (Fifa for English football, Madden for American football, or maybe a golf game, and that’s it. They’ve spent £200 for a console, £40 for a game, and £30 for additional content, plus a £40 annual Xbox Live subscription to play one game online with their friends.

 

  • Now most manufacturers using Windows Phone 7 also produce Android handsets which have a much, much higher rate of sale and adoption at the moment by a massive margin, so Nokia is in a position to be a massively preferential partner with Microsoft.
  • If Nokia hardware, which is still trusted by consumers, and Microsoft WP7 could be put to Activision in a way that gets exclusivity on the Call of Duty franchise for mobile in addition to the Xbox console, or if they’ve already set up the contract that it’s Xbox Live exclusivity regardless of device.
  • Suddenly you have hardware people still remember as trustworthy, even if Symbian was perceived as stone age compared to smartphone rivals. You have Xbox Live which is doing massively well as the established online videogame network, and you have the game which gets a large audience of adults with a disposable income in a position to spend £300 plus just to access that game. If they can figure out the right way to get CoD onto a mobile handset in a way which is enjoyable, ties into the console game as well (Most likely feeding into the new Call of Duty XP social network/stats package), then they’ve got a strong and solid core from which to build.

And given that the mobile/console interaction was being discussed 6 years ago, and increased Xbox Live connectivity is constantly being mentioned in every WP7 upgrade, I wouldn’t be surprised if this was announced pretty soon. Given the fact that one Nokia WP7 handset is out this year, and the next installment in the series, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 is due in early November, marketing for such a phone and app would have to begin pretty soon, but having work on a launch app for a previous Nokia handset, the turnaround times for actually producing something were relatively short in that case.

Now the one thing that would probably scare anyone inside of Nokia from the idea would be remembering the ill-fated N-Gage – the gaming/phone ‘sidetalking’ abomination which ranks as one of the most notable gaming hardware failures of all time (and also produced the stil funny ‘sidetalking’ meme of imitating the N-Gage will all sorts of objects).

Nokia NGage

Just pretend the sidetalking taco phone never happened...

Fortuntely we’ve come a long way since then, with the Sony Xperia Play as the ‘Playstation Phone’ and the success of games including Angry Birds lifting simple mobile games. At the same time, most big games publishers, such as Activision and EA, are already publishing their games on the bigger mobile OS platforms.

If I was Stephen Elop and wanted to grab an established userbase which has disposable income for both hardware and digital content, and already has a strong word-of-mouth community with an established property, I’d be trying to get in a room with Ballmer and Robert Kotick in days or hours to get a deal done.

Thank you and some free books for Christmas reading

It’s the season of goodwill, so it seems a perfect time to say thank you to everyone that’s visited my blog, followed or message me on social networks, or kindly referred me to potential new clients. Plus everyone that’s helped me set-up sites, answered my own questions, and anyone that’s come along to the #DPiP meetups or chatted at conferences etc.

And as times are financially tight for most people, and the cold weather for a lot of us is conducive to staying inside in the warm, I’ve put together a list of some books which I recommend, and are freely available for download (usually under a Creative Commons licence) – mainly because as much as I’d like to offer something I haven’t managed to come up with my own book as yet…

Obviously if you download them and enjoy them or get value from them, I’d encourage you to thank the author by buying a copy for a friend, maybe buying a copy to share in your business, or buying a copy for your local library, for example.

Note: Some of the links are to descriptions, others are directly to PDF downloads. And please check before assuming that any of the works are Creative Commons licenced.

And if you want to compare notes over Christmas, I’m just starting:

So get downloading, have a read, and maybe you’ll be inspired to help the author and your friends/colleagues/local neighbourhood. As an inspiration bonus, I’d also recommend checking out Cory Doctorow’s fictional novels – particularly Makers‘, ‘Little Brother, For The Win‘, and Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom

And if you’ve got recommendations you can share, or want to share your thoughts on any of the books listed, comments are much appreciated!

It feels like everything is a game now…

Using games to develop ideas and awareness for business isn’t new, but it appears to be growing in popularity at the moment, perhaps driven by the buzz around game mechanics and gamification.

For instance, EDF Energy is just launching a game for young engineers, which lasts for 3 weeks in January 2011, and involves you in an interactive adventure game to devise and produce energy and consume it efficiently. If you happen to be a young engineer, you can sign up here. Oh, and there’s a handy video:

All the world’s a game, and all the men and women merely players, with apologies to Shakespeare. More importantly, I think we’ll see a greater pace of gaming adoption by companies once more, and a larger number of gaming-based promotions proving to be successful by offering better interaction, engagement and rewards than in the past, due to the fact so many more people have a far greater understanding of how games actually work.

Three more reasons not to under-estimate gaming

Most people are probably aware that I’m deeply interested in videogames and the gamification of the world which is occurring as more and more businesses and individuals look at what is able to be produced by game methodology.

For example:

  • More than a billion hours are being spent on Xbox Live each month. That’s just one of the three console platforms, and it equates to each of the 25 million current Xbox Live subscribers contributing around 40 hours of time each month.
  • Taken globally across every platform, there are figures as high as 3 billion hours a week. And while efforts to adapt that productivity are underway, it turns out that besides the potential risks of addiction etc, gaming actually may be beneficial to your health and wellbeing in some specific ways. That is – no matter how superficial the game and the output, by enabling you to experience positive emotions and social bonds, you’re likely to live longer, do better at work, and even have longer, happier marriages.
  • There’s a brilliant quote in the video of Tom Chatfield embedded below which sums up online gaming perfectly. For hundreds of thousands of years, humans have evolved in certain ways to perform tasks and get enjoyment from them. Crucially, videogames allow us to reverse-engineer everything, to create worlds which are perfectly tailored to the ways that humans have evolved.

Another of the points he makes which deserves repeating is the fact that an online game allows the measurement of over 1 billion data points – everything that anyone has ever done in that entire world can be tracked, measured and used for optimisation.

And it also justifies the inordinate amount of time I’ve spent in Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 recently – the combination of a social group who are online almost nightly, and the rat pellet feed of rewards and achievements for frenetic (and frustrating on a slow net connection) action.

The other element of the games industry that will be of interest to the publishing/marketing/media non-gamers is that the games industry is relatively young, highly technical, and going through the same challenges as traditional media – how to compete with the challenges of a second-hand games market, how to utilise the ability for gamers to digitally download content, how to implement freemium and subscription models etc.

The difference is that there’s a lot less legacy and inertia to overcome – hence the success of Steam, or the release of the demo/minigame Dead Rising 2:Case Zero as a paid download exclusively for the Xbox 360. It sold 300,000 copies in the first week, and over 500,000 in the first fortnight as a prequel to the forthcoming full retail game, and as content sufficient enough to stand alone.

Through in motion-controls which are going to reach enough people to have an influence almost on a par with the touchscreens of smartphones and tablets, and there’s a lot there – something I’ll continue to expand upon…

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Live cross-platform mobile gaming arrives

The idea of gaming with all your friends regardless of which console they use is fairly unusual, even today, but it’s already a reality in the mobile games market.

SGN launched plane combat game Skies of Glory on the iPhone last autumn, and now that the Android version has arrived today, owners of either OS can play against each other in real time. And you can either fight as mixed teams, or even have Apple owners taking on Android fans.

You’ll need to have Android 2.0 or higher, but the interesting thing is the open multiplayer platform framework which supports the different platforms, and also the range of wireless connectivity, including 3G and Wifi.

It’s a really cool and interesting move, and considering SGN and developers Revo Solutions have already come up with 18 million downloads on the iPhone and iPod Touch, it’s likely to be followed by more companies as mobile gaming continues to evolve.

Maybe the platform wars will finally come to an end if this becomes normal (mobile or console). Or at least the battles will go real-time online!

And why shouldn’t we interact regardless of platform. I can email a Mac user, call anyone on any make of handset, and see tweets, Facebook updates and location check-ins regardless of the technology I’m using. So why have consoles been so resolutely different?

Speaking, presenting, writing, and catching up…

I’m finally able to do something to assuage my blog guilt, after a week of some great meetings and working hard on a lot of cool stuff which unfortunately I can’t share just quite yet…

But I can share a very nice testimonial from Julian Thorne, Managing Director of Dovetail after they kindly let me present at their client conference recently…

‘Dan is incredibly knowledgeable about the social networks in all their myriad guises. He also has that rare ability to enthusiastically inform the uninitiated without ever being patronising’

You might not have heard, but my blogging absence coincided with some small computer and phone company launching some kind of computing device. Hence a post about what it could mean on the One Golden Square blog. Which led to the pleasure of writing a bit of a follow up on the Music Week site. And I’m also flattered by the fact Michael Leis credited me with inspiring his latest post on the iPad. (Incidentally, Michael has been on a bit of a roll with his blog posts recently – some great writing about the usage of APIs for example. Well worth reading/subscribing to).

On balance all that good stuff, this was the week when my Xbox decided to encounter the dreaded ‘Error 74’ – which basically means it has self-destructed just out of the warranty Microsoft specifically extended to three years to counter the fault. That means a £68 repair bill or buying a new Xbox in the post-Christmas month notorious for sending people into debt anyway.

What’s been interesting is that I don’t actually miss playing video games during my enforced break (I have to admit to also owning a PS2, PS, Dreamcast, N64, Sega Saturn, SNES, NES, Megadrive, Master System and various other consoles and computers if needed – reverting to the geek stereotype).

But I really miss the social side of online gaming. Particularly as a core group of friends who I rarely see in real life have all been online every time I’ve logged onto Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2. It’s the fact I’m now barred from this interaction which is the stressful part, and the reason that I’m rebalancing the family budget to accommodate a solution asap.

It makes me wonder about the effect of a more complete disconnection – I’m still online and keeping up with my social life on Twitter, Facebook, forums etc – it’s purely the team-based adrenalin of online warfare I’m missing… But between work, commuting, writing for my personal projects and family life, it’s the one vicarious bit of entertainment in my life at the moment.

Still, it’s spurred me into arranging a couple of drinks with some friends, so I guess it’s not all bad…

Real investments in virtual worlds continue

I was pretty surprised to see social media blog Mashable is utterly baffled‘ by someone investing a record $330,000 in a virtual space station in the online MMORPG Entropia Universe, despite the fact they themselves quote figures of $600 million invested in virtual worlds in January 2009 alone, and the $2 billion virtual economy in China.

Don’t forget back in 2004, David Storey paid $26,500 in Entropia, then Jon Jacobs invested $100,000 in a virtual space station in Entropia in November 2005, and of course Anshe Chung became a millionaire via Second Life in 2006.

Apparently both David and Jon have made their money back and more. Meanwhile back in 2004, Julian Dibbell wrote Play Money: Or, How I Quit My Day Job and Made Millions Trading Virtual Loot about his attempt to match or increase his income by trading in Ultima Online – he also wrote a great blog about the experience.

What’s surprising is that the Mashable author, and probably 50% of those commenting, still express disbelief that investing in a virtual good can be worthwhile, despite the fact that we’re all happy to discuss investments in websites, or even in media companies. If your media company goes bust, you might get a share in a building and some outdated PCs locked on a defunct corporate network, but the real value is in the minds of the employees – another virtual asset!

And given the economic climate, I’m not sure I’d count any investment as being comparitively reliable – but the move is certainly towards investing in ‘idea’ companies. And of course, the rapidly expanding, already massive, social gaming companies such as ZyngaPervasive gaming as entertainment is here, but pervasive gaming as a legitimate, recognized career follows whenever a game is designed to allow the exchange of goods by players (or the players themselves find ways to exchange – e.g. Ebay).

It’s another hugely interesting impact of gaming as the interactive entertainment medium which has risen up to compete with traditional entertainment forms (TV, radio, print), and at the same time powers so many new entertainment forms (Facebook’s gaming population is massive, as one example).

After all, in checking back through this blog’s archives, I’ve invested around 3 years in this version of the site, which only exists virtually on my hosts servers, and on a hard drive backup.

Do parents need a big red button to look after their children?

A European parliament committee report on videogames appears to include a lot of sense, but the BBC report I’ve just seen highlights one element of stupidity.

The report backs the idea that videogames can be beneficial, including helping creativity, cooperation and strategic reflection.  And I can see that although I firmly believe parents should be making decisions about appropriate content, the voluntary age rating system should be improved as we’re still reaching the age where parents are generally videogamers themselves.

But the bonkers part appears to be calling for a ‘red button’ on consoles, computers and within games for parents to turn off a machine or game.

I hate to point this out, but:

  • Consoles and computers have such a button. It’s called the power button.
  • If that fails, non-sentient computers and consoles can be disabled by removing a device known as a ‘plug’ from an ‘electrical socket’
  • Surely there’s an element of parental control which needs to be used if parents wish their offspring to stop playing for a while? The same element which would hopefully be used to dissuade or stop children from any other activity at the wishes of their parents?

If research shows that more than half of European children are playing games unsupervised, then there’s a definite need for parents to take more of an active interest, rather than awaiting the first assault charges brought because a game was suddenly ended mid-session.

It’s why there needs to be parental involvement in internet usage and social networks. And why I’d always recommend that any children using webcams should only be able to use them in a shared family space, and not in their own rooms, for example. But for someone far more knowledgable about the reality of online risks, I’d recommend checking out Danah Boyd’s recent post.