A great opportunity for Nokia that no one has mentioned…

The news is full of reports on the abysmal second quarter results posted by Nokia today, which saw such a massive drop for the company that it has been surpassed by Apple in smartphone sales for the first time (16.7 million Nokias, compared to 20 million iPhones).

Some are suggesting that it’s a sign the move to Windows Phone 7 was the right one, but most analysis and opinion is that Nokia might not survive long enough at this rate, given that we’re only likely to see one WP7 handset by the end of the year, and although the operating system is a nice one, it might not be nice enough to make any impact into the growth of Android and iOS. For a full and complete analysis of how far Nokia have floated up the creek without any propulsion, Tomi Ahonen is as comprehensive as ever in his figures, predictions, and critical analysis of Microsoft and Nokia CEO Stephen Elop.

But I think I may have spotted a big opportunity for a core of growth for Nokia, and it’s all based around Windows Phone 7 and their relationship with Microsoft

Here’s where Nokia, Microsoft and Windows Phone 7 could nail it:

  • Microsoft posted record quarter profits for Q4 last year, and record annual profits of $69.94 billion.
  • The biggest growth has come from the Entertainment and Devices division, which includes Kinect, and the Xbox, which was picked out as contributing significantly to the record profits.
  • Whether you prefer WP7, Android or iOS, you can certainly see that WP7 is a good enough OS to on a par with the others, but the perception is that the huge app catalogues of Android and iOS and the continued increase in developers devoting time and effort to them make their leads pretty unassailable.

But here’s what I think would give Nokia, Microsoft and WP7 a significant core group of growth from which to build….

  • Xbox is growing and making significant revenue.
  • Kinect is a record-breaking success.
  • Integration with Xbox Live and gaming on mobiles has been mentioned by senior Microsoft staff for years, even before the Xbox 360 launched (One of the chief people involved in the Xbox project, J Allard, talked about it in-depth in an Edge magazine feature back in 2005).
  • The biggest selling entertainment product of last year, which broke records for all videogame sales, was Activion’s Call of Duty: Black Ops, which is currently time-exclusive for the Xbox, meaning all updates etc are released way earlier for the Microsoft Console.

Non-gamers may still be asking why this matters, but consider the fact that there is a huge group of Call of Duty gamers who have bought an Xbox purely to play Call of Duty. And these generally aren’t 15-year-olds – these are mainly late-20s and early-30s men (and some ladies) who also bought an iPhone when they became cool and fashionable because a guy at work showed them Angry Birds.

These are people with limited time, and limited interest in comparing operating systems, or app inventory. There are plenty of other great games on the Xbox, but they’ll possibly buy a football game (Fifa for English football, Madden for American football, or maybe a golf game, and that’s it. They’ve spent £200 for a console, £40 for a game, and £30 for additional content, plus a £40 annual Xbox Live subscription to play one game online with their friends.

 

  • Now most manufacturers using Windows Phone 7 also produce Android handsets which have a much, much higher rate of sale and adoption at the moment by a massive margin, so Nokia is in a position to be a massively preferential partner with Microsoft.
  • If Nokia hardware, which is still trusted by consumers, and Microsoft WP7 could be put to Activision in a way that gets exclusivity on the Call of Duty franchise for mobile in addition to the Xbox console, or if they’ve already set up the contract that it’s Xbox Live exclusivity regardless of device.
  • Suddenly you have hardware people still remember as trustworthy, even if Symbian was perceived as stone age compared to smartphone rivals. You have Xbox Live which is doing massively well as the established online videogame network, and you have the game which gets a large audience of adults with a disposable income in a position to spend £300 plus just to access that game. If they can figure out the right way to get CoD onto a mobile handset in a way which is enjoyable, ties into the console game as well (Most likely feeding into the new Call of Duty XP social network/stats package), then they’ve got a strong and solid core from which to build.

And given that the mobile/console interaction was being discussed 6 years ago, and increased Xbox Live connectivity is constantly being mentioned in every WP7 upgrade, I wouldn’t be surprised if this was announced pretty soon. Given the fact that one Nokia WP7 handset is out this year, and the next installment in the series, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 is due in early November, marketing for such a phone and app would have to begin pretty soon, but having work on a launch app for a previous Nokia handset, the turnaround times for actually producing something were relatively short in that case.

Now the one thing that would probably scare anyone inside of Nokia from the idea would be remembering the ill-fated N-Gage – the gaming/phone ‘sidetalking’ abomination which ranks as one of the most notable gaming hardware failures of all time (and also produced the stil funny ‘sidetalking’ meme of imitating the N-Gage will all sorts of objects).

Nokia NGage

Just pretend the sidetalking taco phone never happened...

Fortuntely we’ve come a long way since then, with the Sony Xperia Play as the ‘Playstation Phone’ and the success of games including Angry Birds lifting simple mobile games. At the same time, most big games publishers, such as Activision and EA, are already publishing their games on the bigger mobile OS platforms.

If I was Stephen Elop and wanted to grab an established userbase which has disposable income for both hardware and digital content, and already has a strong word-of-mouth community with an established property, I’d be trying to get in a room with Ballmer and Robert Kotick in days or hours to get a deal done.

Is Xbox Live better than golf for digital business networking?

I’ve never managed to get into golf as a sport, but I’ve often been made aware of it as a useful social gathering for business people to get together. Was I missing out due to my lack of interest, ability and plaid sportswear?

My Lucky Golf Outfit by Jeff The Trojan on Flickr

My Lucky Golf Outfit‘ by Jeff the Trojan on Flickr (CC Licence)

Well, if golf was the social context for business networking in the past, I’m rapidly realising that Xbox Live appears to have replaced it. Obviously my network is self-selecting to an extent, but a quick scan of my friends includes:

  • a couple of founders of significant start-ups (i.e. companies you’ll definitely know).
  • a fair number of journalists, including a couple of editors.
  • 5-10 fairly prominent digital marketers.
  • a handful of tech experts in specialist areas.

Theoretically it’s possible I could keep up with all of these friends in the pub, although it’d take a mighty amount of diary juggling and even then, some of them are rarely in the same city with enough free time.

But it’s easy for me to meet up with them online and spend some time gaming (and occasionally chatting about general tech stuff in between). And without wishing to provoke the wrath of Sony/Nintendo fans, the fact that Xbox Live has long been the most seemless and best integrated online networked console experience, means it’s a pretty good time all round…

It interesting how this facet of being social has become integrated into the digital world automatically and subsconsciously alongside keeping in touch with family, friends, colleagues and the looser circle of connections around them both on a personal level, and sharing links, information etc…

And even if the game of choice is pretty much always Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Xbox 360), I could probably even be tempted into a spot of Tiger Woods PGA Tour 11 (Xbox 360).

Did Microsoft China copy and clone Plurk?

Is Microsoft China’s MSN Juku a straight theft of code and design from Plurk, the microblogging service which has had major success in the Asian world?

Despite fading after initial interest in the West, Plurk now claims to be ten times bigger than Twitter in Taiwan alone, and the preferred method of microblogging in many Asian countries, despite access to the site being banned by China in April 2009. At the time, Plurk’s top five countries were Indonesia, Taiwan, the Philippines, the U.S and China, so it was a big issue.

Now the issue has got even bigger, as described in a blog post by Plurk co-founder and lead developer, Amir, which states what they think has happened:

  • Microsoft China officially launched its own microblogging service, MSN Juku/Hompy/Mclub, some time in November, 2009.
  • The service’s design and UI is by and large an EXACT copy of Plurk’s innovative left-right timeline scrolling navigation system.
  • Some 80% of the client and product codebase appears to be stolen directly from Plurk!
  • Plurk was never approached nor collaborated in any capacity with MS on this service.
  • As a young startup, we’re stunned, shocked, and unsure what to do next and need your support and suggestions.

And judging by the images and code displayed on the Plurk blog, it seems far too suspicious to be a mere coincidence.

Spot the difference:

image

And again…

image

And once more with feeling:

image

It’s pretty amazing that a company of the size of Microsoft China would even think about stealing code to power a new launch, and that it’s gone this far if so. The only logical reason could be that China’s internet laws and lack of access to the outside world could lead to people thinking no-one would notice.

The question the Plurk team is asking is how to tackle the problem?

My guess is that the bad publicity wouldn’t necessarily worry Microsoft China, but might worry Microsoft itself a little more, particularly given all the efforts to fight Chinese piracy and protect intellectual property that Microsoft has supported. It’s a big harder to do that when you’ve got a clone of a reasonably well-established and successful company sitting there for all to see.

Techcrunch has also covered the story, and I’m looking forward to seeing what, if any, response they get from Microsoft.

My guess will be that MSN Juku will go quiet for a while, before perhaps reappearing with a slightly more unique codebase and design. If not, perhaps the only other option will be for Microsoft to get into acquisition mode – something that didn’t work out well for Google and Jaiku, and isn’t likely to work when the starting point is a complete rip-off!

Update: The outcome is that yes it’s a clone, but apparently done by a third party developer when everyone else was obviously on holiday or in a meeting. The site has been taken offline indefinitely, and the only remaining question is whether Plurk, which is a pretty small and young startup, will bother to try and take matters further, which given the legal resources MSN has, is probably unlikely…

Will Microsoft listen to the FixOutlook Twitter backlash against Outlook 2010?

One of the strengths of Twitter is the ability to get quick feedback, but Microsoft might not be seeing it as a positive right now.

I first picked up on the complaints about Outlook 2010 and the resulting FixOutlook site via Hacker News on Wednesday morning.

The reason the movement have started is that Microsoft intend to use the Word rendering engine to display HTML emails in Outlook 2010, and this means:

for the next 5 years your email designs will need tables for layout, have no support for CSS like float and position, no background images and lots more. Want proof? Here’s the same email in Outlook 2000 & 2010.

That means angry developers, which is never good on the internet. The use of Fix Outlook, which is a nicely presented stream of people ReTweeting the message (HT to Neville Hobson for a nice summary and digging a little into who is behind the site), and the move from core users to mainstream means the site went from 7,500 tweeters at around 1pm UK time on Wednesday to 16,676 just five hours later. And it doesn’t show any signs of slowing down yet!

Especially as it’s now being picked up by the likes of Mashable.

The main questions are how significant Microsoft will see this protest, in comparison to the likely number of potential Office customers who don’t use Twitter and won’t understand or care about tables or CSS – and whether that significance will result in any action on their part.

But even if it’s a small group numerically, considering the relatively high proportion of digital workers and developers using Twitter, it’ll be interesting to see what happens over the next few days.

Techcrunch and Microsoft: Two WTF? moments…

Two items appearing in my Google Reader subscriptions almost led to me exclaiming WTF? on a crowded Monday morning commuter train. (Post now updated due to more info – see below)

First up was the strange experience of seeing Michael Arrington and Techcrunch complain about someone posting a video of the Crunchpad which ‘was not a sanctioned or official video‘. And which has since been taken down. The video was of the CEO of Fusion Garage, who are partnering with Techcrunch on the Crunchpad, unboxing the last prototype.

Let me repeat. Techcrunch has complained and taken down video which was ‘not sanctioned or official’.

Techcrunch.

On the plus side, it’s relegated the Mike Arrington call to end handshakes to the second most bizarre thing I’ve read on Techcrunch.

On a more positive note, Techcrunch also revealed a major Microsoft marketing blunder.

If you download Internet Explorer 8 through this specific site, Microsoft pledged to donate 8 meals per download to a group called Feeding America.

As MG Siegler pointed out, there’s a slight problem. For each download, Microsoft pledged to donate $1.15 to a maximum of $1 million.

‘Only complete downloads of Windows® Internet Explorer® 8 through browserforthebetter.com from June 8, 2009 through August 8, 2009 qualify for the charitable donation to Feeding America®. Microsoft® is donating $1.15 per download to Feeding America® up to a maximum of $1,000,000. Meals are used for illustrative purposes only. Meal conversion is effective until June 30th, 2010.’

Which means that each ‘meal’ would be $0.14.

*update 1pm*

As revealed in the comments below, the figures for the cost of meals is actually directly from Feed America’s figures, so it’s incorrect to state that Microsoft set the cost of a meal at $0.14. Rather, it’s bloody impressive Feed America manage it!

I’d still argue that $1 million is a relatively small commitment comparative to the other marketing campaigns etc which Microsoft is running – and that the IE8/Feed America donation is definitely part of a marketing plan.

Oh, and for the record, I’m an MS fanboy if anything as a PC person over Macs, and an Xbox fanatic!

*end of update*

As MG has gone on to explain in an update, it’s a good thing that Microsoft has pledged money to a good cause – it’s just that $1 million is somewhat dwarfed by the $80 million that is being spent on Bing promotion – and linking it so tenously to the number eight is marketing gone mad.

You can imagine the meeting:

“Why don’t we do something with social responsibility – how about donating some money when someone downloads IE8?”

“Yeah, but how does that promote us? Where’s the brand? Hang on, why don’t we donate 8 meals per download, and that way it promotes IE8″

“That will cost us a lot, though”

“Yeah, but if we limit it to $1.15 in the fine print, noone will notice, and we’ll look like we’re as nice as that company who do no evil”

Lesson 1:

If you’re going to embrace the idea of social responsibility properly, it’s probably better to be honest and open about what you’re actually doing, and build on that goodwill, rather than trying desperately to tie it into your brand message and then looking like a bunch of cheapskates.

Lesson 2:

And as a journalist, I’m well aware of the need to offer companies a ‘right to reply’, and the benefits of going through official routes to fact check etc – but I’ve also lost count of the Techcrunch stories which get put out as quickly as possible, and then updated as facts are checked to ensure speed of information, and a fast placement on news aggregators.

If you’re going to live by the sword of fast tech blogging or social responsibility, then you also have to be willing to accept a few flesh wounds…

The Xbox could rule the living room with bundled internet access

Since I questioned Microsoft’s change in marketing strategy for the Xbox, I’ve been thinking about positive suggestions for boosting the market share of the Xbox 360. And I think I’ve got a good one, although it might be bit odd – as always I’m hoping your comments will aid my thinking.

The idea came to me as:

Microsoft’s Xbox 360 is a major attempt to ‘own the living room’ with a device which converges gaming (especially online gaming), videos, and other entertainement and community building.

Xbox Controller by A_Hermida on Flickr (CC Licence)

Xbox Controller by A_Hermida on Flickr (CC Licence)

The Xbox Live service is a major selling point for the Xbox.

Videos on Demand were one step towards convergence.

Then integrating with Netflix was the next step to boost the pretty measly catalogue of videos on demand. (Sadly still unavailable in the UK).

US broadband suppliers are starting to limit data. Meanwhile in the UK, far lower limits are normal. In fact, one major reason for my decision to go with Zen Broadband was that they offered a decent data limit for 2-8Mb connections, unlike most other ISPs (It’s the maximum speed I can get in my area). But even with a 20GB limit, I’m getting closer and closer to hitting the data limit every month, as more and more of my media usage is online.

So why doesn’t Microsoft bundle internet access with the Xbox 360/Xbox Live accounts?

There may be issues around conflicts of interest etc, but if Microsoft wants to own the living room, particularly outside the U.S, then perhaps becoming an ISP, or partnering with an existing supplier might be the best move they could ever make.

1. If they offered the highest data limits in the market, they’d give an added incentive for families to pick the Xbox.

2. Increased data limits would encourage the download/renting of full films online – as it is, a handful of films would mean no more internet for a month for me.

3. They could ensure maximum compatability, and also work to reduce issues with lag and connections. There are still many issues with online gaming, especially given the speed differences between U.S and U.K for example.

4. They’d be in a position to stimulate broadband improvements, and drive down prices by subsidising the costs with the increase in revenue from an uptake in sales, Live Accounts, and VoD. Plus it may stimulate more innovation in the services being offered. And they’d also be able to benefit from offering services from the entire Microsoft business to families which are likely to have other internet-enabled devices alongside their Xbox.

5. It gives an added incentive for people currently using/considering a PC as a media centre to use the Xbox instead.

It seems to make sense, but in my enthusiasm I may have missed some reasons why this would be difficult/impossible – so please do help improve my thinking through the comments.  Maybe we’ll end up with better broadband because of it!

Has Microsoft made a major marketing mistake?

I downloaded the new Xbox Live Experience and Dashboard for my Xbox 360 last night, and while the functionality is taking a little bit of time to adjust to, I’ve already decided I don’t like a major part of the strategy. And more importantly, it may be a big mistake for Microsoft.
Badgergravling on new Xbox Live

Everyone in the world knows the success that Nintendo has had with the Wii – which ignored the graphical arms race to focus on party games and family friendliness, plus little WiiMii avatars etc.

But I didn’t buy an Xbox 360 for those reasons. I bought it because I loved the Xbox Live functionality, enjoyed fairly mature games, and saw the potential for digital music and film distribution.

I liked the fact the Xbox was seen as slightly more hardcore than the family Wii or the trendy PS3. I liked the fact it was more of an unusual choice, and that in my opinion it looked quite stylish. I like the fact the dashboard system was quite simple and functional.

But with the new dashboard update, Microsoft has essentially forced me to turn my Xbox 360 into a less fun Wii.

And suddently the Xbox looks more like a copycat than a leader. That’s the marketing mistake.

The two incarnations of the Xbox did something different to the rest of the market by concentrating on online gameplay, and becoming the first console to make good use of broadband. That was the Purple Cow. It’s what built a following for both Xbox and Halo.

It’s what made me tell friends and colleagues why they should get an Xbox and meet up online. Why I talked about how Microsoft were being brave enough to blaze the trail for online gaming. And why people talked about Sony killing their brand. There was talk about convergence, and owning the living room. And as someone who grew up with videogames and has now reached middleage, it was a sign that the average adult could engage with gaming on their own contemporary level, rather than as a childish indulgence.

All that’s now gone.

Not because now I’m forced to represent myself as a cute little fella in a suit and comedy hat.

But because I’m forced to admit MS has copied the success of Nintendo in the cute market, and forced consumers who paid for a different brand and image to copy as well. It’s no longer a hardcore choice, or a Purple Cow. When two competitors start chasing the same ideas, and Nintendo already has the lead and a price advantage, it’s a battle the Microsoft brand can’t win.

Have you upgraded to the new Xbox Live experience, and do you agree or disagree? More importantly, how do you feel about the avatars, and the fact it brands Microsoft as copycats, not tech innovators – and could a brand with the legacy of Microsoft ever compete on that level against Nintendo?

Note: edited a reference to prices, as I incorrectly priced the 360 as more expensive than the Wii.

A market crying out to engage your brand?

Last weekend my willpower collapsed and I bought Xbox 360 blockbuster Halo 3. I’d tried to resist, but when 31 friends are online, and 30 are playing one game, it’s near impossible to hold out.

On Sunday evening, over 900,000 players were online, and numbers have topped 1 million. That’s people online at any one time, and people that have paid not only for the game (Up to around £49.99 for the limited edition version), but have also most likely spent out on buying an Xbox Gold subscription for 12 months of online gaming.

Now imagine if your brand or publication had access to a code to make the main character in Halo3 run faster, take more damage, or even a special character design?

Think the chap that has paid £40 to get a game on release, rather than waiting for a discount, would find it easy to resist? Especially with the peer pressure of 30 of his friends waiting to be impressed by his new skills?

And whatever the brands, there’s a likely game to tie in. Whether it’s a racing game, an adventure game, a sci-fi shooter, or something oddball and cute like Viva Pinata.

It’s Open Office 2.3 day….

Should you need an office system which sits on your laptop and doesn’t cost a penny, (or benefit Mr B Gates), then you’ll be pleased to know Open Office 2.3 is available from now, here.

There’s a host of new functionality and bug fixes, which are detail in the release notes. Suffice to say I’ve used it as a legal alternative to expensive or hacked copies of Microsoft products, and found it to be really usable, and there’s been no problems using Open Office files with MS Word files when transferring between machines, or home and work.

I’d suspect most people would have an office suite of software on which ever computer they own, but if, for ideological, updating, or ‘Ooops I’ve formatted the hard drive’ reasons you need the likes of a word processor, spreadsheet application etc, then Open Office is ideal.

Forget social networking. The video bandwagon is rolling

I’m beginning to think the fad for social networks is going to start to fade shortly. It’s reaching the mass market, and almost every niche is getting blanket coverage by a range of sites. Almost everything you can think of is being covered in one form or another…

To paraphrase from a film ‘ All the great themes have been turned into themeparks” (Bonus points if you can name the film)

But it seems as if the number of video start-ups and press coverage they are getting is growing close to social networking levels. Now that the implications of Googletube are rocking the foundations of the internet, it’s all about live streaming, peer-to-peer, showing your live webcams etc…

The latest one I’m watching is live TV on web and mobile, with ‘a quality image with no buffering or stopping’, from Skinkers. A potential Joost rival/killer:

“it offers the lure that viewers can “‘click’ on a TV advert exactly as they do on the web but while watching your existing TV channels”.

And, Skinkers says, that can all be done without the TV service having to change any of its existing business processes. A version of LiveStation for Macs is being developed.”

And it’s looking less fanciful when you realise it’s using Microsoft’s LiveStation…allowed as Microsoft owns 10 per cent of Skinkers.

More on The Reg.

It’s safe to say that only 5-10 per cent of the new video start-ups will actually be worthwhile, but the good news for social networking fans is that it will allow some time for the chaff to be sorted from the wheat. At which point it’ll be time for consolidation and the bandwagon to role round again.