technology

Plane crazy

August 30, 2011 By Dan Thornton

I seem to split my time between making predictions about future business and technology, and looking back at the past. Maybe it’s my age or fatherhood, but I seem to be finding links between the two far more readily, especially when my son is involved, although this time it’s more about just enjoying the fantastic machinery on show at Imperial War Museum Duxford.

Duxford Air Museum — Spitfire at Duxford, with Concorde in the background

It really is a cool place to visit – 200 planes, 50 tanks, and enough to keep a young child entertained while his dad admired everything from fighter planes to commercial airliners and the occasional Spitfire. Plus, it’s the only time I’ve ever been buzzed by a jet fighter in true Top Gun style whilst sitting and eating an ice cream.

They’ve got pretty much everything from vintage biplanes to the Eurofighter, SR-71 BlackBird and of course, Concorde. And I have to admit, not being privy to the joy of travelling across the Atlantic in under 3 hours, that I was a bit surprised it wasn’t a little more glamourous.

But besides the wonder of seeing all these amazing machines up close, whether it’s the SR-71 BlackBird I had as a poster on my wall, or the Russian T-34 tank, I did wonder about the fact that it appears aviation seemed to stop around the time computers and the internet began to exist in the 60’s and 70’s.
I don’t mean that we don’t all cram into budget class on a 747 for our holidays, but all of the amazingly futuristic designs seem to have been replaced by pure utility, much as we once had Cadillacs with huge fins and now have sensible hatchbacks. And I’m wondering why we aren’t seeing a return to amazing designs?

After all, there must be some way that the increase in virtual conferencing reducing business travel, and the increases in environmentally-friendly travel could give rise to transport that looks amazing whilst saving the planet? Not everyone who wants to prevent global environmental catastrophes wants to drive around in something that looks like a jelly mold or a box on wheels.

It’s that belief that everything has to be OR, rather than AND. The web has to destroy print, rather than both existing in a completely different way. And the internet and the environment demand that we end up travelling in dull tedium, as experienced by every commuter on a daily basis, rather than something cool and interesting.

Want me to increase my efforts to recycle and turn the heating down? Find me a way that I’ll be rewarded with something like this on my driveway in 10 years.

And while I’m talking about how great planes are – it’s not flying people hate. It’s the fact that airports are soulless, miserable places which increase boredom and anxiety, before the joy of passing through customs, and then the loss of control as unexplained noises accompany some stranger hurtling you into the air at 300+mph, whilst knowing you’re likely to be stuck circling round a destination in the middle of nowhere, waiting for your suitcase to appear alongside 20 identical examples, and then the fun of customs in a different culture.

On the plus side, Duxford is great, and I’m seriously thinking of their membership package just to get the tour of this rather famous plane:

2012 – the year of 3D printing?

August 25, 2011 By Dan Thornton

It seems like I’ve been talking to people about 3D printing for ages, but it seems like momentum is really gathering for it at the moment as it starts to reach a wider audience, and with the news Makerbot Industries has just secured $10 million of funding.

Frustratingly, and out of character for me, I can’t find a blog post noting when I initially heard about it, although it must have been around 2009, as that was when the initial press reports started appearing, and I do remember being familiar with it before I read the awesome Makers by Cory Doctorow, which I then bought for my dad as a far more inspiring and clearer explanation of the possibilities than I could manage. And in addition to promising myself a Makerbot and Arduino board by the end of the year back in January, I’ve mentioned it to a lot of people over the last few years. In fact, my stock answer when people ask me for any tech prediction or investment tips has been ‘3D printing and robotics’. The use of robots is delivering disruption in everything from bomb disposal to warehouse management, and 3D printing is going to have a more immediate impact on manufacturing in the very near future.

And as recently as this afternoon, I was reminded of one of Clarke’s laws – ‘Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic’, as I showed some very digitally savvy and clever people some Youtube videos to explain 3D printing and left them amazed.

One of the best examples is this video showing the manufacture of a wrench (or adjustable spanner in the UK) simply by scanning it in 3D and pressing ‘print’.

And the possibilities are amazing – already people are creating full sized replica motorcycles, working planes, guitars, sculptures, complex gear mechanisms, and a huge range of protyping applications which aren’t even being publicised, although this promo video for a printer gives some idea of the breadth of the options:

And of course, there’s Makerbot’s products, which can be purchased for under £1000 and then sit next to my home PC churning stuff out, before I can progress to the larger models:

Why is 3D Printing about to hit?

A few things seem to be heading towards the perfect 3D printing storm. Early adopters are already talking a lot about the opportunities, including many people I have a lot of time and respect for. The mainstream media are starting to pick up on it again, and explain it in a way which fascinates people. And when you think about the range of promotional merchandise which could be produced, for example, it’s easy to see that a company could actually save a fair amount of money by running their own 3D printer rather than using foreign labour and a intermediary company.

There’s also the financial situation for most people, and times of austerity often lead people to invest in better longterm products and solutions, including buying better quality products which will last, and looking for ways to fix and improve things rather than replacing them. Give me a way to replace all the broken parts of toys in the house, or various gadget parts, and I’ll soon have recovered the purchase price.

Then you’ve got the fact that you can already print 3D chocolate creations – bang goes the chocolatier industry – and Cornell University have already been looking at ways to produce all types of food from basic ‘food inks’, and even human organs and body parts.

It’s hard to imagine how many industries and businesses will be affected, and how quickly the disruption will take place, given the real world implications are far more immediate than even the digital disruption of the internet has managed. There are plenty of people who resisted going online, or didn’t see the benefits – show them a quick, cheap and easy hip replacement that works and has no waiting time and they can see why it’s worth it straight away!

The biggest challenge to 3D printing:

The only challenge to 3D Printing will be the bane of all disruptive digital technology – copyright. Both Makerbot and Fab@Home are open-source projects, and I have no doubt that any attempt to block access to the technology and raw materials of 3D printing will be immediately worked around.

The biggest problem will be whether existing industries can do anything to initiate copyright law not only for replacement parts for their specific products, but also newer ideas. And they’ve got a huge incentive – take motorcycle production, for example, where a £10,000 motorcycle built entirely from new spare parts would cost over £50,000.

3d printing will disrupt the world in the next 12 months

MIT are printing solar cells on pieces of paper, Enrico Dini can print buildings from dust, and the first human vein has already been created with 3d printing.

It’s almost impossible to envisage all the opportunities and implications of what this will bring – and if you’re looking for the easiest and cheapest ways to access the technology, there are already companies like Shapeways that will create whatever you’re able to upload. But although I did once wonder about opportunities for a similar business, it’s really a gateway company as the cost of owning your own production continues to fall to the point where your garden shed is a mini-fabrication facility for anything from paper models to human organs. And considering the cost of a Makerbot Thing-o-Matic is already down to $1299, it’ll be interesting to see how their new investment could lead to even further price reductions in the short term. That’s just from economies of scale etc with the existing technology, and not even accounting for the inevitable improvements in how 3D printers are actually made. Self-replication isn’t exactly unimaginable.

I don’t often gamble on making predictions for something as radically unpredictable as technology and the impact it will have on the world around us, but 3D Printing for me is beyond the introduction of the smartphone, and rivals both the internet, and even the invention of the computer. The question isn’t if it will be the most radical change since the industrial revolution – the only question is when…

Great book for fans of technology, futurism or ‘fracking cool robots’

March 4, 2011 By Dan Thornton

As a New York Times bestseller which has received countless positive reviews, and which features a quote from The Daily Show’s Jon Stewart on the cover saying ‘This book is awesome’, it’s safe to say you may have already heard about ‘Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century‘ by P.W. Singer, but if not, I strongly suggest you take a look at it.

I’d recommend it to anyone with an interest in technology, futurism, AI, etc whether or not you have an interest in the military itself or find warfare abhorrent. Singer is quite open in the fact that he has attempted to write for people interested in technology as much as the military, and does a great job of blending scholarly information, awe at the progress of robotics, and character stories in a readable way.

It’s fairly substantial, with the paperback hitting 436 pages before the acknowledgements and footnotes, and the fact I’ve raced through it in a matter of days shows that it’s pretty digestible despite the fact it’s got a lot of interesting, useful and surprising facts. And there are a lot of references to consumer technology alongside the military applications, whether it’s because iRobot split their time between army products and the Roomba, or because warehouse management technology can be applied to U.S Navy ships.

Ebooks evolving: TEDBooks launch as Kindle Singles

January 26, 2011 By Dan Thornton

The launch of Amazon’s Kindle Singles has been accompanied by the launch of TEDBooks – short nonfiction works designed for digital distribution by following the type of idea which has resonated from the global series of TEDTalks, and presenting it in less than 20,000 words, which is enough for a single sitting. And you can read them via any device with a Kindle App: iPad, Mac, PC, Android, iPhone, Blackberry and Windows 7 smartphones, as well as the Kindle itself.

Longer than a typical magazine article, but shorter than your typical book, it’s an interesting approach which sees three books available at launch for $2.99. The line-up is The Happiness Manifesto: How Nations and People Can Nurture Well-Being by Nic Marks, Dangerism: Why We Worry About the Wrong Things, and What It’s Doing to Our Kids by Gever Tulley, and Homo Evolutis: Please Meet the Next Human Species by Juan Enriquez and Steve Gullan.

The presumption behind the books is that their length and cost will see people choose them in preference to magazines or other short entertaining diversions, and I think it’s a fair gamble to make. I don’t think it would work for everyone, but the ideas which are shared at TED events are always interesting, engaging and designed for you to want more. It also means I can self-serve myself the topics I really want to know about, rather than paying a few dollars or pounds more for a magazine, which often contains things that I either don’t care about or don’t read if time is short.

It’s interesting to see projects like this, and Seth Godin’s The Domino Project, all taking a new look at how publishing works in a digital world, and pretty much starting from scratch and building from there. Does a book need to be a certain minimum length? Does it need a traditional print version, or the standard marketing and promotion? Will people go for something for a couple of quid or bucks, and will they choose that over a longer, more general, and more expensive magazine?

It’s also interesting that these ideas are coming Amazon, TED and Seth Godin, not a traditional book publisher. That’s not to say traditional publishers aren’t changing, but it seems like starting from a fresh perspective could reveal a lot more about the future…

(Incidentally, an alternative source of TED inspiration are the videos of TEDTalks available via Youtube. I can’t recommend it highly enough if you fancy watching talks ranging from the likes of Stephen Hawking, Bill Gates and Richard Dawkins through to the likes of Christoper ‘Moot’ Poole – the founder of 4Chan.)

(And if you’re intrigued or interested in what books I’m currently planning to obtain for myself, here’s my current tech/marketing/digital culture wishlist on Amazon – this isn’t a cheap ploy for presents (Although they’re always nice), but it’s the one place I’ve gone to the trouble of updating recently with recommended additions to anyone’s library. I’ll have to go back through the various book sharing social networks to provide a complete list of everything already assimiliated. Anyone got any recommendations?)

‘Date Night’ technology lessons…

November 29, 2010 By Dan Thornton

I took some time out with my better half last night to watch ‘Date Night’ with Steve Carroll and Tina Fey. Besides being a really good and funny film, it also sparked a few thoughts about technology which have stuck with me…

Tech is everywhere:

A USB flash drive is integral to the plot of the film (the unfair but often true stereotype is hearing it referred to as the ‘computer sticky thing’). But more noticeable were the appearances of touchscreen technology and an Amazon Kindle. The fact the Kindle was mentioned by name means it could well have been product placement, but it also needed no explanation for the audience, and showed how mainstream e-readers have become. The better-half was also far more interested in the cool touchscreen technology (Can you really get that stuff now?) than she was 12 months ago – the influence of the iPad/smartphones etc…

Still needs to be easier:

One of the benefits of having an Xbox is that the Zune Movies service occasionally gets updated with some good films – and I can buy and watch without leaving the sofa.

The downside was realising that I’d accidentally bought the film as a download rather than the streaming option – and in HD format, it’d still be downloading now. So after searching around for about 20 minutes, I finally found a way I could access the streaming version – by paying for it again! So what started off as a normal rental cost was doubled, simply because I didn’t pay enough attention…

The cynic might suggest Microsoft and film companies are happy to get double purchases from people making an easy mistake, but the longterm result is I’m less likely to pay for another rental, knowing how easy it is to make a mistake…

And there’s another reason for blogging this:

The final lesson of ‘Date Night’ was a reminder to spend some time actually enjoying the fact new technology enables me to have more fun with my family, rather than an end in itself…